The head of the center sondażowego Trafalgar Robert Cahaly said that in this year of elections in the United States, the President, Donald Trump will not win, as most of the surveys takes into account the “hidden voices”. Trafalgar right before selective Triumph Trump in 2016, said.
The seat is in Georgia Center, a day before the election in 2016. as one of the few centers of research, said the public opinion apt to predict that Trump will win in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida.
We have found that surveys take into account the hidden vote for Trump – translation of the TV channel Fox News Cahaly. In his opinion, the electorate of the President not sharing their opinion and not does not want to participate in surveys, what is included in the corresponding share in most of the studies.
Trafalgar offers a slightly different method of research than competing centres. Taking into account, in particular, the questions of psychological and asks of the respondents, for example, to whom, according to them, to your neighbors.
In the opinion of the centre this year, a duel of the elections is still more than this, up to four years. Cahaly provides that Trump wins again in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia.
According to the surveys Trafalgara Republicans win in Michigan (0.6 percentage points), and Arizona (in 4 ABS. Percent). His opponent, the Biden Democrat Joe wins, and in Pennsylvania (2.3 points. Percent). and in Wisconsin (1.3 points. Percent). This would mean, probably, 276 of 538 votes elektorskich for Trump, that will ensure the President the next term.
The vast majority of American polls-favorite, the 3. November elections acknowledges Biden. Focused on the analysis of opinion polls, Portal, five thirty eight gives demokracie 88 percent. Chances of a final Triumph. 20. October of 2016. the former kandydatce Democrats Hillary Clinton gave similar opportunities to 87 percent.
In the registered national average of polls-real clear politics-wide, in the United wahających – North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania – Biden led with Trump on Wednesday to 3.8 points. Percent.
Still in the early vote, the voices, the opinions, in the absence of, and as personally, more than 41 million Americanswhat a share of approximately 29.7 per cent. the ultimate turnout from 2016. In Texas, this share is already up to 59.2 percent. Studies have shown that for early voting during the pandemic, especially mobilized the electorate of the Democrats.